Ukraine Crisis Is Much Better For China Than It Is For Russia And US
China is the biggest winner of the isolate Russia campaign by the West which has made the oil-rich Russian economy pariah.
As ties with the U.S. are showing no signs of improvement under the Biden administration, China can make use of Russia and its 11th largest economy to blunt American policies and the sanctions, initiated in the aftermath of the trade war between the two most powerful nations in 2018.
Russia is a giant resource-rich nuclear neighbor and with a dependent Russia as its sidekick, China can lord over Eurasia with its Belt-Road Initiative.
Both China and Russia share similar world views. Both see Washington as a prime instigator of any political opposition to their rise to the top. The 5,000-word joint declaration signed off by Presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin last month places objection to NATO's expansion to Eastern Europe.
In fact, their authoritarian leaders' partnership is an answer to Biden's effort to forge an alliance of democracies.
After the Ukraine crisis gained momentum this year, China is sitting pretty as the West's focus on the Indo-Pacific and pressure on Beijing has been reduced.
Again, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it has become imperative for the West to keep China in the good books and seek its cooperation to tame Russia. This will lead the West to rethink its sympathy for Taiwan. China wants to see the self-governing island reunited with the Mainland.
Above all, the West's latest round of sanctions on Russia has increased its dependence on China. For the cash-starved Russian economy and its vast energy industry, China has become the biggest client and after Russia and its major banks were removed from the dollar-based SWIFT payment system in response to the Ukraine invasion, China's Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has come handy for the Russians to conduct their international trade. The sanctions and the ban on SWIFT have taken away nearly $1 trillion worth of assets from the Russian exchequer.
According to experts, Russia has eventually been reduced into a client of Beijing. Both countries are eager to build an alternative to U.S.-led political, economic, and military alliances, starting with NATO and there is no reason to halt or even slow down their cooperation anytime soon.
Continuing its subtle support for Russia is not going to pay dividends to China. It would send the global economy into turbulence and would harm China. Already, Russia is running short of choices in Ukraine. Contrary to the Russian expectations, Ukraine has been putting up a brave fight, preventing the invading Russian troops' chances of claiming any substantial victory as the crisis entered the 13th day March 8.
If the flare-up continues in its current trajectory, a choiceless Russia may opt for a nuclear world war as Russia has nothing to lose.
But that is not the case with China which has everything to lose if the world gets burned down in the Russian fury. China's economy is number one in the world in terms of PPP-GDP and is growing faster than the U.S. and shows no signs of a slowdown in the near future. China possesses a powerful military, probably at this point far more powerful than Russia's.
This has brought openly before China the chance to be at the top of the world by helping to achieve a cease-fire in Ukraine and for President Xi the chance to become the most powerful Chinese leader after Kublai Khan in the 13th century.
On March 7, the Chinese Foreign Minister said China was open to helping mediate peace between Russia and Ukraine. Due to the growing dependence of Russia on China, Beijing may push Russia to wind up the invasion of Ukraine, with which China enjoys cordial ties and a lucrative economic relationship.
Currently, no western powers are in a position to fulfill the role.
In the new world order, China has become an exceptional nation with Russia in toe.
